Authors: Stanisława Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published: December, 2007

The objective of this report is to present the model of future health care system revenues and expenditures in Poland, and to discuss assumptions for the projection and projection results. Expenditure analysis is based on ILO social budget model, part of which is health budget model. The model takes into account the revenue side of health care system as well, which is consistent with the above-mentioned discussion on health care system funding and its sustainability. The first part of the Report is dedicated to social, and especially health-related, expenditure models and projections applied in Poland. Following, detailed description of data and information used in the current projection is presented. Baseline projections of main demographic and macro-economic variables and indicators used in the model are shown, and the assumptions for the development of these indicators and their inter-relations are discussed. Three scenarios are presented: the baseline scenario, death-related costs scenario, and the scenario with different longevity improvements. Projection results cover both the revenue and the expenditure side of health care system. Finally, conclusions are made and policy recommendations are formulated, based on projection results.

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