Authors: Magnus Piirits, Andres Võrk
Published: September, 2017

We update the health insurance long-term forecast model with new data to assess the long-term financial sustainability of health insurance and test the impact of scenarios on sustainability. The originaal model was created during the periood 2013-2014, you can read about it here.

After updating the model, it is possible to assess how future health insurance revenues and costs will change in the light of current situation and considering the latest economic and population forecast. Significant value added in the model is the modelling of scenarios which provides an opportunity to assess the impact of changing health care system to financial sustainability. For example, how does the payment of social tax for non-working retirees and the additional costs affect the health insurance revenues and expenses and the reserves of the Estonian Health Insurance Fund.

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